How long will the ERE scheme last?

Short answer: the ERE scheme is the Dutch implementation of European law. It is codified into hard law, with targets that escalate every year up to 2030, and it is built to survive and adapt until at least 2030 and beyond.

A compliance mechanism, not a voluntary pledge

Unlike voluntary carbon markets that struggle with changing corporate whims, the ERE is a legally mandated compliance mechanism.

The ERE framework is the Netherlands’ national enforcement of the European Union’s Third Renewable Energy Directive (RED III). Because it is codified into hard law rather than voluntary corporate goals, it cannot easily be dismantled or ignored when economic conditions shift.

The legal basis is Directive (EU) 2023/2413, implemented in the Dutch Wet milieubeheer (sections 9.7 and 9.8), the Besluit energie vervoer and the Regeling energie vervoer.

Built-in escalation targets

The system features legal architecture that locks in steadily rising emission reduction targets every year up to 2030. The Netherlands has committed to at least 14.5% lower greenhouse gas emissions from transport fuels by 2030, measured across the full chain from source to combustion, against a fossil baseline of 94 grams CO2-equivalent per megajoule.

This structural escalation guarantees a permanent, growing demand for ERE certificates.

Alignment with the German THG Quota

By moving to a strict greenhouse gas reduction metric, the Netherlands has harmonised its energy credits with Germany’s established THG Quota system. This regional alignment creates a stable, standardised North-West European trading block for renewable fuels and electricity.

Why this model matters more widely

The Dutch ERE model serves as a prime case study for the evolution of the broader carbon market.

  • It proves that the future of carbon accounting relies on actual carbon intensity calculations over vague estimations.
  • It demonstrates how localised, compliance-driven insetting, reducing emissions directly inside a company’s transport and supply chain, is replacing traditional external offsetting.

What this means for you

Demand for EREs comes from fuel suppliers who are legally required to meet a target that keeps rising until 2030. As long as that target exists, so does the demand for the units you earn at home.

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